Don’t Get In Too Big A Hurry

This time of year, it’s pretty common to hear pundits and fans discussing the fact that MLB teams look to maximize their investments by trading assets at their “peak value”. While that’s typically a good business approach, you have to be extremely careful when investigating the market to find out just what that is.

Here’s a quick economics lesson to illustrate why the Braves shouldn’t trade the young pitching they’ve acquired unless it’s for a serious return that they believe will help the organization over the long-haul. Most of the notable arms they’ve stockpiled over the last 2 years haven’t come remotely close to reaching that peak value (for various reasons) and include…

Manny Banuelos – 24 (Under control through 2021) – Signed by the Yankees for $450,000 in 2008

Mike Foltynewicz – 24 (Under control through 2021) – Drafted 1.19 in 2010. The Astros paid him $1,300,000 to sign.

Tyrell Jenkins – 23 (Under control through 2022) – Drafted 1.50 in 2010. The Cardinals paid him $1,300,000 to sign.

Casey Kelly – 26 (Under control through 2021) – Drafted 1.30 in 2008. The Red Sox paid him $3,000,000 to sign.

Chris Withrow – 26 (Under control through 2019) – Drafted 1.20 in 2007. The Dodgers paid him $1,350,000 to sign.

Paco Rodriguez – 24 (Under control through 2019) – Drafted 2.82 in 2012. The Dodgers paid him $610,800 to sign.

Arodys Vizcaino – 25 (Under control through 2019) – The Braves received $500,000 when they first acquired him from the Yankees in 2010. They also received $830,000 in international bonus slots when they re-acquired him from the Cubs in 2014.

Matt Wisler – 23 (Under control through 2020) – Drafted 7.233 in 2011. The Padres paid him $500,000 to sign.

Sean Newcomb –  22 (Under control through 2022) – Drafted 1.15 in 2014. The Angels paid him $2,518,000 to sign.

Max Fried – 21 (Under control through 2022) – Drafted 1.7 in 2012. The Padres paid him $3,000,000 to sign.

Touki Toussaint – 19 (Under control through 2022) – Drafted 1.16 in 2014, The Diamondbacks paid him $2,700,000 to sign.

Aaron Blair – 23 (Under control through 2022) – Drafted 1.36 in 2013. The Diamondbacks paid him $1,435,000 to sign.

Daniel Winkler – 25 (Under control through 2020) – Drafted 20.618 in 2011. The Rockies signed him for less than $100,000 bonus.

Zachary Bird – 21 (Under control through 2022) – Drafted 9.296 in 2012. The Dodgers paid him $140,000 to sign.

Chris Ellis – 23 (Under control through 2022) – Drafted 3.88 in 2014. The Angels paid him $575,000 to sign.

Ricardo Sanchez – 18 (Under control through 2022) – Signed by the Angels for $580,000 in 2013.

Andrew Thurman – 24 (Under control through 2022) – Drafted 2.40 in 2013. The Astros paid him $1,400,000 to sign.

 

That’s more than $20,588,000 (not including what the Yankees initially paid to sign Vizcaino) in draft signing bonuses, international signing bonuses, and international bonus slots OTHER organizations paid those Pitchers to sign with them to now pitch for the Braves. Simple economics should require that the organization gives all of them whatever amount of time needed to eventually succeed (even if the SPs have to be transitioned to bullpen pieces) unless there’s something significant or with more upside coming back in any deal moving forward.